NGX Weekly Market Summary & Insights (Week Ending July 11, 2025)

This week brought a strong rebound to the Nigerian equities market, with the All Share Index (ASI) surging 3.95% (WTD), accelerating from last week’s modest 0.84%. The market closed at a record 126,149.57, its weekly high, while year-to-date (YTD) returns expanded impressively to 22.26%.
Sentiment was distinctly bullish with a Market Breadth Ratio of 5.16x and 98 advancers far outnumbering 19 decliners. Notably, turnover and volume dipped despite this strong rally—an interesting warning flare for investors. Multiple stocks hit new highs and the banks dominated both sector and trading activity. The overall vibe: risk-on, with serious momentum, but a patch of profit-taking may be near for some overheated names.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Market Breadth: 65.36% of all stocks advanced, while only 10.61% declined—a very bullish breadth (Advancers: 98, Decliners: 19). 53 stocks hit new highs, 1 new low.
• Turnover: Value and volume both declined WTD (-18.80% and -4.63% respectively), even as prices soared, indicating some momentum-fueled buying and possible caution from major players.
• Momentum: Many top gainers now sport overbought RSI readings above 80, a classic signal to monitor for reversals.

Top Gainers & Losers—Week in Focus

Analyst Takeaways & Trends

• Small-caps and momentum stocks are raging: The top 5 gainers all posted 45-46%+ gains, with most hitting extremely overbought RSI readings (all above 83; MEYER at 94.5).
  • RSI Alert: FTN COCOA, REDSTAREX, MEYER – all with RSI > 88 (even touching 94), strong MACD positive histograms, and sustained 15DMA > 50DMA (bullish crossovers)—likely in the late stages of a hot rally; traders should trail stops tightly.
  • High Dividend Yield Standout: REDSTAREX with a 6.12% yield, but also deep in overbought—rare combination that could attract both yield and momentum players.
• Losers show ETF and bond weakness: VETIVA S&P and GREENWETF led the downside, with the latter having a YTD decline of -66.29%.
  • GREENWETF’s RSI at 21.8 is now reaching the classic "oversold" threshold—possibly primed for a mean-reversion bounce for short-term traders.
• Volume/Turnover Disconnect: Despite new highs and breadth, actual trading activity declined. This often precedes short/medium-term consolidation, as existing holders hesitate to chase extended prices.
• ETF/Bond Volatility: VSPBONDETF’s rapid drop signals uncertainty in fixed income proxies, linked to rising rates and outflows toward equities.
• Unusual Volume: No extreme anomalies in volume spikes, but several banks feature as most-traded—see trade activity below.

Year-To-Date (YTD) Top Gainers & Losers

• All of the week’s top gainers are also among the best YTD—momentum at work.
• REDSTAREX and MCNICHOLS combine high YTD performance with healthy dividend yields—rare, attractive mix.
• Losers list is dominated by ETFs and energy names like OANDO, showing weak thematic preference for these assets YTD.

Bullish vs. Bearish Momentum Stocks & Technical Overlaps

• Bullish Momentum:
  • FTNCOCOA, REDSTAREX, MEYER, ELLAHLAKES have both RSI > 80, positive MACD crossovers, and 15DMA > 50DMA—very rare, triple-bullish signals. Such extended runs demand caution for new entries but may remain strong until a reversal triggers.
  • Banking majors (ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, UBA, GTCO) are also bullish—riding sector strength (details below).
• Bearish Momentum:
  • GREENWETF: RSI 21.8, MACD/MA negatives, deep negative YTD. Deeply oversold, but dangerous for catching falling knives except the nimblest traders.
  • VSPBONDETF: Very weak WTD and YTD, but RSI is not deeply oversold yet (49).

Sector & Indexes Analysis

• Banking Sector: The Power Engine: NGXAFRBVI (Bank Value) +14.71% WTD and NGXBNK (Banking) +11.44% WTD outperformed all, confirming the heavy trades and price momentum in banks; YTD gains here are also stellar (+34-39%).
• Consumer Goods: Modest this week, but YTD champ (+60.37%).
• Insurance & Value: Insurance strong this week (+13.38% WTD). Value stocks and funds also joined the bull run.
• Oil/Gas Lags: The only loser both WTD (-0.72%) and YTD (-9.79%), confirming persistent sector apathy.

Retail vs Institutional Trading: Patterns & Hidden Clues

• Institutional investors made up 68.7% of traded volume and a massive 88.9% of value—but only 42.3% of trades. Retail investors punched above their weight in trade count (57.7%), but far lower in value (11.12%).
• Top Institutional Stocks:
  • ACCESSCORP (11.7% of institutional volume), UBA, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, DANGCEM
  • Banks dominate institutional volumes—ties in with sectoral outperformance and heavy fund flows.
  • High price gains and momentum plus institutional attention = continued short-term leadership, but watch for reversal on waning volume.
• Top Retail Stocks:
  • GTCO, ACCESSCORP, UBA, ZENITHBANK—again, banks are where the action is, indicating retail is trend following institutional flows.
  • JAPAULGOLD also appears—a speculative favorite; volume spikes suggest active retail trading when risk appetite is high.

Trading & Investment Suggestions

• Momentum players: Trail tight stops on overbought stocks (RSI > 85), consider partial profit-taking. Beware of "overcrowded” momentum names (FTNCOCOA, MEYER, REDSTAREX).
• Value & Income seekers: Look at high-yielding recent gainers (e.g., REDSTAREX, MCNICHOLS)—but await short-term pullbacks; usually, price comes down after this type of momentum spike.
• Contrarians: For mean-reversion, monitor names at or below RSI 30 (ex: GREENWETF), but use stop-loss orders and size carefully. Oil & Gas is still a "no-go zone” for now.
• Banks: Stay focused—sector flows suggest likely leadership persists near-term, but watch for stalling volume as a sign of short-term topping action.
• Watch for consolidation: Breadth, leadership, and bullish percent are extremely high—but the decline in turnover plus overbought indicators often resolve through sideways or corrective action.

Visual/Tabular: Week’s Standout Stocks

Overlaps between weekly and YTD top gainers reinforce high-momentum moves; be alert for reversal in such extreme conditions.
Bond/ETF underperformance spotlights ongoing shifts away from defensive positions into equities.

Summary Table: Top 5 Traded Symbols by Trade Type

• Heavy Institutional presence in top Banks—shows conviction in the sector’s earnings/macro story. Retail follows.
• Speculative fever among retail—JAPAULGOLD’s large volume (but not value) hints at speculative churn as smaller traders hunt quick returns outside the banking heavyweights.
• Liquidity dries up away from top financials—most other sectors, even consumer goods and Oil/Gas, far behind.

Bottom Line & Next Week’s Watchlist

• Trend: Bullish Overall, But Overheated. Unmistakable price leadership, but with declining turnover and several stocks at technical extremes (overbought RSIs in gainers; deeply oversold in some losers).
• Opportunities: Momentum followers can ride banking/insurance/value stocks, but trailing stops and tactical profit-taking are key. Watch for short-term pullbacks in the hottest names.
• Cautions:
  • The breadth and momentum are unsustainable without fresh volume. Prepare for volatility as some traders lock in outsized gains.
  • Defensive plays (bonds/ETFs, Oil/Gas) still struggle—a trend unlikely to change without macro/tapering signals or a risk-off shock.
  • Beware of chasing stocks with extreme RSI values (85+)—this week’s big winners could correct sharply if liquidity ebbs.
• For Contrarians: Carefully stalk mean-reversion in deeply oversold names, especially in ETFs with >20 RSI, but size positions small and use stops.